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The Next Cycle Of HC Discoveries
Carlos Cramez

The chief natural laws are briefly summarized and depicted. Applying the available data base (OPEC, OGJ, IHS, BP review, World Oil and USDOE/EIA), few general hypotheses related to HC exploration and production can be advanced:
- Publishing reserves is a political act. There are several category of reserves (ex: in Norway, NPD recognizes as many as 12 categories.
- Field growth (reserves appreciation) corresponds mainly to bad practices of reserves reporting.
- Technological progress leads to faster and cheaper production, but has not much impact on conventional reserves revisions. Technological progress is needed for unconventional resources.
- Oil prices increase will raise unconventional resources not yet listed as reserves, but it does not increase conventional reserves.
- Cheap oil will peak soon.
- Excluding the Eastern deep water of the South Atlantic margin, where large fields (± 500 MMb) are likely (subsalt plays unexplored), the future short term reserves are those that in the past:
Have been missed
Have not been taken into account
Since 1990, these hypotheses have been corroborated (Cusiana, Lombo-East, Villeperdue, Peciko, Ben Berkine, etc.).
- Long term reserves will be chiefly associated with few foredeep basin and folded belts in which seismic data is whether impossible to acquire or useless (reflection free). Ex: Papua New Guinea, Andes, Rocky Mountains, Ural Mountains, Assam, etc.
- Future exploration requires a good data base and explorationists with an appropriate experience in all branches of exploration.

Examples of this type of exploration and suggestions for future international exploration are proposed.

Schedule and tuition
Venue: Sheraton Hotel Mar del Plata.
Duration: 1 day - November 15, 2005.
Course fee: U$S 150

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